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Despite Media Coronation, Mitt Romney Is In Big Trouble

Despite mainstream media's coronation, Mitt Romney's Campaign looks to be in real trouble. With Santorum and Gingrich out of the race, their delegates will likely be released to vote for any candidate. The likely outcome will be to partner with Ron Paul supporters to force a brokered convention and force a more conservative platform on Mitt Romney. Mitt Romney, often referred to as Obama light, is not favored by more conservative party members. That's why there has been the persistent anybody except Romney vote in the various primaries.

This partnering to increase the conservatism of the party platform is what appears is happening in Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Washington, Colorado, Maine, Louisiana, and Nevada. There is now a very good chance of a brokered Republican Convention.  If Romney cannot clinch the nomination prior to the convention, after the first vote at the convention, delegates in primary states are no longer locked into voting for any candidate.  Also, something few have commented on, bound delegates can choose to withhold their vote on the first ballot instead of voting for the candidate they're bound to support.

If Ron Paul supporters were as active in primary states as they were in caucus states, and if the anybody but Romney vote swings to Ron Paul, he could likely be the Republican candidate, not Mitt Romney. The way the primary works, Romney has to get 1144 delegates to prevent a brokered convention. In a brokered convention, bound delegates votes are only bound on the first vote. Santorum and Gingrich's delegates are no longer bound and appear to be largely part of the anyone but Romney vote.

So how many Ron Paul supporters stayed around to volunteer to be delegates for Mitt and how many delegates are anybody but Romney voters? How many Gingerich and Santorum supporters will favor Paul over Romney? See how this works?

The news media reports that Romney has 900 delegates, but fails to mention that that is an estimate that assumes that delegates are proportional to the popular vote. That is simply not true. Also delegate totals are not being updated by media or the GOP to reflect the actual Paul delegates that the state conventions have started to deliver to Ron Paul.

It is a mathematical certainty that if Romney does not take the nomination on the first vote, Ron paul's avid supporters will have infiltrated the delegate process and along with the anybody but Romney vote could take the nomination from Mitt or at minimum force a more conservative party platform.

Even Fox (Neo-Con) News admits that Ron Paul will certainly be on the ballot in Tampa. During this whole election the media has downplayed Ron Paul, and overstated rival (status quo) candidates delegates. It's going to be great fun to watch them eat crow.

The media is no longer reporting news. They are actively trying to shape news, influence outcomes, and minimize truth when it conflicts with their perspectives. In other countries, I think that's what is known as propaganda.
jthitt jthitt 56-60, M 4 Responses Apr 28, 2012

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Romney is not an insider, he wont get elected.

As much as I like Ron Paul's Libertarian/Conservative approach to the economy (and am no fan of Romney), I regretfully have to say that your points are little more than grasping at straws.



Ron Paul is an excellent businessman, and very likable, but has been known to express some very bizaar and controversial opinions and beliefs. Coupled with the fact that, though his supporters are very vocal and energetic, they are still a very small minority in the GOP... He still has no prayer of winning. The deligates will unfortunately go mostly to Romney. To believe otherwise would only be the worst kind of self deception.